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No-Deal Fear Checker, No 8
According to the latest IEA ‘fear-checker’, the Whitehall analysis combines relatively high estimates of the potential long-term costs of ‘no deal’ Brexit with relatively low estimates of the potential benefits. The Bank of England analysis is intentionally (albeit justifiably) designed to provide ‘worst case’ scenarios for the near-term impact. Different assumptions could therefore lead to very different conclusions, meaning that neither study comes even close to proving that Brexit would leave the UK economy X% smaller or £Ybn worse off.