Research

Great Stagnation Briefing 1: The Never-Ending Credit Crunch


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Lifestyle Economics
https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Goodspeed-The-Never-Ending-Credit-Crunch.pdf

Summary



  • The UK is now around 40% poorer per person than the US, having
    been on course for near economic parity as recently as 2007. If it
    were a US state, the UK would be the poorest in the union, ranked
    below Mississippi.

  • Britain has not always been outpaced by the US. Between 1955
    and 2008, the UK experienced an annual trend rate of real growth
    per person of 2.3%, slightly faster than the US at 2.1%.

  • After the Global Financial Crisis, the US suffered a drop in the level
    of economic activity but then essentially returned to trend growth.
    In contrast, the UK experienced both a sharp drop in the level of
    economic activity and a decline in the subsequent rate of
    economic growth.

  • Austerity cannot explain the UK’s underperformance: the US
    pursued a similar policy over the same period.

  • The real cause was post-2009 banking regulation, which required
    banks to substitute perceived low-risk lending to governments for
    lending to business.

  • The effects of regulation fell disproportionately on the UK’s bankdependent economy, and undermined lending to small and
    medium-sized businesses, inhibiting their ability to grow. The US
    was less affected due to its greater reliance on non-bank credit
    and the abundance of small banks subject to fewer regulatory
    requirements.

  • Whereas US lending to non-financial businesses recovered by
    mid-2013, in the UK bank lending remains 15% below its early
    2008 level.




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