IEA economist comments on today’s public sector finances data
Professor Len Shackleton writes for CapX
Annabel Denham writes for The Spectator
“The UK government borrowed about £5 billion more than expected in February, as higher debt interest costs offset a rise in tax revenues. Nonetheless, favourable revisions to past months mean that borrowing is still on track to undershoot the OBR’s forecast for the fiscal year 2021-22 by about £24 billion.
“Looking forward, rising inflation will keep debt servicing costs high. But OBR analysis (published in last October’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook) has already shown that an inflation shock is likely to reduce borrowing overall, thanks to the boost to revenues, even with much larger hikes in official interest rates.
“Inflation will surely reduce the burden of debt relative to national income, especially with real interest rates likely to remain low – even negative – for the foreseeable future. Indeed, debt has already fallen to 94.7 per cent of GDP, from a recent peak of more than 100 per cent.
“In short, there is nothing in these numbers to prevent the Chancellor from easing the pressure on households and businesses in tomorrow’s Spring Statement.”
Notes to editors
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