What Snowdon v. Portes teaches us about economic predictions



Kristian Niemietz writes for CapX

Christopher Snowdon featured in The Financial Times

IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon’s successful 2018 wager that child poverty would continue to decline has been featured in The Financial Times.

Chris Giles, who arbitrated the bet between Christopher and economist Jonathan Portes, wrote:

“Portes’ lost bet should not stop economists trying to predict the consequences of state policy. But they need to be more transparent about what can go wrong with forecasts. The past decade has seen many respected economic institutions, including the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation, making similarly erroneous predictions about rising income inequality and poverty levels.

“The Office for Budget Responsibility is alone in regularly highlighting the errors it has made in its forecasts and publicly listing the lessons learnt. This should be normal practice.

“What really matters for genuine poverty reduction is economic growth.

“Of course, addressing genuine poverty is more complicated than generating economic growth, but, truth be told, not that much more complicated.”

Read the full article here.