Surprise fall in consumer price inflation “unlikely to last”, says IEA expert
Julian Jessop quoted in The Guardian
Emily Carver writes for Conservative Home
“The surprise fall in consumer price inflation to 2% in July is welcome, but unlikely to last.
“The figures were flattered by a number of special factors, including falls in some erratic prices (such as computer games), distortions due to the timing of summer sales and other base effects (notably affecting clothing and footwear), and some figures which are little more than guesswork due to the pandemic (including the true cost of package holidays).
“Other inflation gauges are less encouraging. There was only a slight fall in RPI inflation, from 3.9% to 3.8%. This measure is still used to set many bills, including rail fares. Producer price inflation is continuing to accelerate, meaning there is plenty more upward pressure in the pipeline.
“Consumer price inflation is still set to rise to at least 4.5% by the end of the year – well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. One month’s slightly dodgy data therefore make little difference to the case for ending the policy of money printing – sooner rather than later.”
Notes to editors
Contact: Emily Carver, Head of Media, 07715 942 731
IEA spokespeople are avaialable for interview and further comment.