Policymakers underestimate CPTPP’s economic impact
IEA research quoted in the Daily Brit
James Forder writes for CapX
“The UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), signed this weekend by Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, ought to be a cause for celebration. It brings us into a trade area of 500 million people, covering 13% of global GDP.
“The ‘0.08% of GDP’ figure presumably comes from the Department for International Trade’s document…, but highlighted the point that this was the result of ‘static modelling’
“But here is a very clear case where treating the number that happens to have been estimated as carrying the important information is a terrible approach to the assessment of public policy. A proper appreciation of the advantages of this landmark agreement require a much broader understanding of the sources of the gains from free trade.”
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