IEA Featured Publications
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29 January 2021
Research
Warns of upside risks to inflation, arising from a post-COVID boom In its meeting of 12th January 2021, held by video-conference due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) elected, by a vote of nine to zero, to hold rates in February. There was unanimity that the announced programme of additional QE ...
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29 January 2021
31 July 2020
Research
In its meeting of 14th July 2020, held by video-conference due to ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) elected, by a vote of nine to zero, to hold rates in August. Five members favoured holding Quantitative Easing (QE) at its current level. Two favoured reducing QE. Three expressed a bias to raise ...
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31 July 2020
Dr Juan Castañeda and Professor Tim Congdon
18 June 2020
Research
Summary The policy reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic will increase budget deficits massively in all the world’s leading countries. The deficits will to a significant extent be monetised, with heavy state borrowing from both national central banks and commercial banks. The monetisation of budget deficits, combined with official support for emergency bank lending to cash-strained ...
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Dr Juan Castañeda and Professor Tim Congdon
18 June 2020
4 May 2020
Research
In its April 2020 poll, held via video conference, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) elected, by a vote of nine to nil, to hold rates in May. The background to the vote is the extraordinary circumstances of the coronavirus crisis. Interpretation of these events was closely related to views taken about the severity of ...
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4 May 2020
26 January 2020
Research
In January 2020, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by six votes to three to keep Bank rate at 0.75%. But six of those who voted had a bias to raise rates in the next few months. The majority view to keep rates at 0.75% was based on signs that the UK economy faltered ...
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26 January 2020
3 November 2019
SMPC
At its final meeting of 2019, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by eight votes to one to keep Bank rate at 0.75%. Although the vote was held before Parliament decided to hold a General Election on 12 December 2019, none of the Committee members has changed their view. The adverse effects of uncertainty ...
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3 November 2019
15 September 2019
Research
An email poll of members of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) carried out in late August, and early September 2019 resulted in a vote to keep interest rates on hold by six to three, the same margin as in July. Three dissenters wanted to raise rates by ¼% immediately and then gradually to around ...
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15 September 2019
31 July 2019
SMPC
In July 2019 the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by six three to keep Bank rate at 0.75%. Concerns about Brexit was one of the critical reasons that those that voted to keep rates on hold did so. Uncertainty about a deal, its terms and an extension of the deadline for the UK to ...
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31 July 2019
16 June 2019
SMPC
Based on its email conducted during early June 2019, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by a margin of five to four to keep Bank rate at 0.75%. As in May, the vote remains close, with four wanting a ¼ point rise. Those voting to raise rates focussed on the strength of the consumer ...
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16 June 2019
2 May 2019
Research
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes to hold bank rate
At its second full meeting of 2019, held in April, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by a narrow margin to keep Bank rate at 0.75%. Five voted to hold rates and four voted for a ¼ point rise. Four main reasons were given by those voting to keep rates at 0.75%. First, raising ...
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2 May 2019
