Economic Forecasting – Models or Markets?
Celebrating the first 20 years of the IEA
The severe limitations of macro-economic policy
Forecasts are merely statements about the probability of a future event; their usefulness depends on a) the correctness of the theory and (b) the accuracy of the assumptions about the underlying conditions. If the theory is a) wrong (rejected by testing), or (b) does not apply to the given conditions, the forecast is invalid.
Politicians have taken drastic and precipitate action on the basis of casual observation or impressions from atypical events with no thought to testing the hypotheses used to justify their behaviour.