Remember the public health grinch
23 December 2022
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Healthcare
In the Media
Economic Theory
Christopher Snowdon writes in Spiked!
IEA Head of Lifestyle Economics Christopher Snowdon has written for Spiked! criticising the push for a Christmas lockdown in 2021.
Christopher wrote:
“For people of sound mind, Covid-19 has long faded into the rear-view mirror. Seeing someone wearing a face mask today is like seeing someone wearing a monocle. And yet it is only 12 months since a group of scientists, activists and journalists tried to bounce England into a fourth lockdown.”
Christopher argues that SAGE (and their bad modelling) was at the heart of the lockdown campaign:
“The modelling, which had been too pessimistic for at least a year (most famously when Neil Ferguson predicted 100,000 cases a day after ‘Freedom Day’ in summer 2021), became laughably apocalyptic. A million cases a day were predicted by Christmas. Thirty-thousand hospital admissions a day were thought likely. Six-thousand deaths a day was considered a reasonable worst-case scenario. Even the best-case scenario expected a peak of 600 deaths a day.
“As it turned out, the number of deaths peaked at barely 200, a sixth of the death toll reached in the two previous waves.”
Christopher’s article ended on a note of festive cheer:
“So here’s to a merry Christmas without the threat of a lockdown for the first time since 2019. The attempts to cancel Christmas last year have largely been forgotten. But for those of us who remember, those responsible will never quite be forgiven.”
You can read Christopher’s full article here.
Christopher wrote:
“For people of sound mind, Covid-19 has long faded into the rear-view mirror. Seeing someone wearing a face mask today is like seeing someone wearing a monocle. And yet it is only 12 months since a group of scientists, activists and journalists tried to bounce England into a fourth lockdown.”
Christopher argues that SAGE (and their bad modelling) was at the heart of the lockdown campaign:
“The modelling, which had been too pessimistic for at least a year (most famously when Neil Ferguson predicted 100,000 cases a day after ‘Freedom Day’ in summer 2021), became laughably apocalyptic. A million cases a day were predicted by Christmas. Thirty-thousand hospital admissions a day were thought likely. Six-thousand deaths a day was considered a reasonable worst-case scenario. Even the best-case scenario expected a peak of 600 deaths a day.
“As it turned out, the number of deaths peaked at barely 200, a sixth of the death toll reached in the two previous waves.”
Christopher’s article ended on a note of festive cheer:
“So here’s to a merry Christmas without the threat of a lockdown for the first time since 2019. The attempts to cancel Christmas last year have largely been forgotten. But for those of us who remember, those responsible will never quite be forgiven.”
You can read Christopher’s full article here.
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