Future lockdowns must be ruled out
5 June 2023
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Jonas Herby and Lars Jonung, co-authors of new research published by the IEA on the impact of lockdowns, have discussed the findings of their work in The Telegraph and argue that lockdown policies must never be repeated.
The co-authors wrote:
“Our systematic meta-analysis of Covid restrictions has found lockdowns saved what translates to an estimated 1,700 to 6,000 lives in England and Wales. By way of context, influenza inflections account for an annual burden of around 20,000 deaths in the two nations.
“We used two different approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdowns in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020. Our results indicate that lockdowns prevented approximately 3.2 to 10.7 per cent (6,000 to 23,000 Covid-19 deaths in Europe and 4,000 to 16,000 deaths in the US). These results are based on all relevant research studies and are robust when accounting for potential biases. They are further supported by results from natural experiments and several existing reviews on the subject, strengthening their validity.
“The Telegraph’s Lockdown Files offered a unique insight into how the Government handled the earlier stages of the pandemic. In many cases, it appears policy was formulated on the hoof, with little regard given to costs and benefits. This was not unique to the UK. Our research finds the costs were huge, the benefits minimal. Lockdown was a blunt policy tool that failed to serve its purpose. Yet as the serious mistakes of 2020 and 2021 begin to fade in the memory, there is a very real risk that this instrument will be used again in future.
“Our findings, including the relevance of voluntary behaviour, should serve as a critical focus point of the UK’s Covid-19 Inquiry. Otherwise, we risk being trapped in a cycle of repeating the costly errors we made during the pandemic.”
Read the full op-ed here.
The co-authors wrote:
“Our systematic meta-analysis of Covid restrictions has found lockdowns saved what translates to an estimated 1,700 to 6,000 lives in England and Wales. By way of context, influenza inflections account for an annual burden of around 20,000 deaths in the two nations.
“We used two different approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of lockdowns in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020. Our results indicate that lockdowns prevented approximately 3.2 to 10.7 per cent (6,000 to 23,000 Covid-19 deaths in Europe and 4,000 to 16,000 deaths in the US). These results are based on all relevant research studies and are robust when accounting for potential biases. They are further supported by results from natural experiments and several existing reviews on the subject, strengthening their validity.
“The Telegraph’s Lockdown Files offered a unique insight into how the Government handled the earlier stages of the pandemic. In many cases, it appears policy was formulated on the hoof, with little regard given to costs and benefits. This was not unique to the UK. Our research finds the costs were huge, the benefits minimal. Lockdown was a blunt policy tool that failed to serve its purpose. Yet as the serious mistakes of 2020 and 2021 begin to fade in the memory, there is a very real risk that this instrument will be used again in future.
“Our findings, including the relevance of voluntary behaviour, should serve as a critical focus point of the UK’s Covid-19 Inquiry. Otherwise, we risk being trapped in a cycle of repeating the costly errors we made during the pandemic.”
Read the full op-ed here.
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