Chancellor has headroom for tax cuts, public finance data suggests
25 April 2023
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In the Media
IEA research referenced in the Law Society Gazette
25 April 2023
Economic Theory
11 November 2024
Commenting on today’s ONS public sector finances figures, Julian Jessop, Economics Fellow at free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, said:
“The public finances data is, once again, not as bad as feared. Borrowing in the year ending in March has come in £13.2 billion below the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This suggests the Chancellor has more headroom for pre-election tax cuts and other sweeteners.
“The lower borrowing is partly due to buoyant tax receipts, reflecting stronger activity and higher inflation, which increases revenues by boosting cash incomes and spending. Expenditure is up sharply too, but this includes the energy subsidies which should not be needed much longer.
“The OBR’s forecast error (in the context of public sector spending and income that are both over £1,000 billion) is forgivable. Nonetheless, it highlights how the current fiscal framework places far too much weight on a single set of OBR forecasts that will almost inevitably turn out to be wrong.
“New figures on the state’s overall balance sheet remind us of the longer-term challenges. The UK’s ‘public sector net worth’ shows that liabilities exceed assets (by £606 billion) at the end of March. This is much smaller than the usual measure of public sector net debt (£2,507 billion) and not really a surprise. This measure should help focus minds on the long-term sustainability of the public finances and make the government face up to all its liabilities.”
ENDS
Notes to Editors
CONTACT: media@iea.org.uk / 07763 365520
The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems. The IEA is a registered educational charity and independent of all political parties.
“The public finances data is, once again, not as bad as feared. Borrowing in the year ending in March has come in £13.2 billion below the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This suggests the Chancellor has more headroom for pre-election tax cuts and other sweeteners.
“The lower borrowing is partly due to buoyant tax receipts, reflecting stronger activity and higher inflation, which increases revenues by boosting cash incomes and spending. Expenditure is up sharply too, but this includes the energy subsidies which should not be needed much longer.
“The OBR’s forecast error (in the context of public sector spending and income that are both over £1,000 billion) is forgivable. Nonetheless, it highlights how the current fiscal framework places far too much weight on a single set of OBR forecasts that will almost inevitably turn out to be wrong.
“New figures on the state’s overall balance sheet remind us of the longer-term challenges. The UK’s ‘public sector net worth’ shows that liabilities exceed assets (by £606 billion) at the end of March. This is much smaller than the usual measure of public sector net debt (£2,507 billion) and not really a surprise. This measure should help focus minds on the long-term sustainability of the public finances and make the government face up to all its liabilities.”
ENDS
Notes to Editors
CONTACT: media@iea.org.uk / 07763 365520
The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems. The IEA is a registered educational charity and independent of all political parties.
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