Bank of England at significant risk of overcorrecting
11 May 2023
SUGGESTED
Monetary Policy
In the Media
Economic Theory
11 November 2024
Commenting on the Bank of England’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, Trevor Williams, Chair of the Institute of Economic Affairs’ Shadow Monetary Policy Committee and former chief economist at Lloyds Bank, said:
“The Bank of England helped create the inflation problem, then said there wasn’t a problem, then called it ‘temporary’, and now runs a significant risk of overcorrecting.
“Just as the Bank of England failed to identify inflationary pressures at the tail end of the COVID-19 pandemic, they may be once again focusing too much on present inflation rather than long run trends. The sharp reduction in the money supply points towards inflation coming down quickly over the coming two years. The UK’s sluggish economic growth, easing supply chain pressures and a series of recent bank failures also point against the need for further rate rises.
“Inflation could still dip to around 1 per cent over the next two to three years and even after adjusting for the Bank’s revised forecast suggesting stronger growth, it is expected to undershoot the 2 per cent target. This trajectory indicates interest rates need not go up any further.”
ENDS
Notes to Editors
The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems. The IEA is a registered educational charity and independent of all political parties.
“The Bank of England helped create the inflation problem, then said there wasn’t a problem, then called it ‘temporary’, and now runs a significant risk of overcorrecting.
“Just as the Bank of England failed to identify inflationary pressures at the tail end of the COVID-19 pandemic, they may be once again focusing too much on present inflation rather than long run trends. The sharp reduction in the money supply points towards inflation coming down quickly over the coming two years. The UK’s sluggish economic growth, easing supply chain pressures and a series of recent bank failures also point against the need for further rate rises.
“Inflation could still dip to around 1 per cent over the next two to three years and even after adjusting for the Bank’s revised forecast suggesting stronger growth, it is expected to undershoot the 2 per cent target. This trajectory indicates interest rates need not go up any further.”
ENDS
Notes to Editors
- The IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, a group of independent economists that shadow the Bank of England, voted to keep the Bank rate at 4.25 per cent.
The mission of the Institute of Economic Affairs is to improve understanding of the fundamental institutions of a free society by analysing and expounding the role of markets in solving economic and social problems. The IEA is a registered educational charity and independent of all political parties.
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