2 thoughts on “Tomorrow 3.0”

  1. Posted 05/02/2016 at 14:22 | Permalink

    The population figures for England and Wales are even more striking if one goes back another 100 years. In 1750 the population of England and Wales was probably only 7 million. By 2050 it could be ten times as many. I forget who it was who said: ‘Trends go on until they stop.’

  2. Posted 08/02/2016 at 22:04 | Permalink

    (1) Re: Uber — hiring a car and driver is generally going to be significantly more expensive than just renting a car. So there’s clearly some level of use where the money saved by not owning a car is less than the aggregate wages you will pay to the driver(s) over and above the pro-rated cost of the car. So unless you are in the position where you really can measurably increase your income with the time spent in the passenger seat, the point at which you might as well own a car and drive yourself is probably lower than you think.

    (2) Re: the saw — your $3-$4 estimate is way low. Is there any reason to expect that the one-way fare for a saw chauffeur will be less than the Uber base fare of $5-$7 at the cheapest? I live between five and ten minutes away from a Lowes in the suburbs, so it’s unlikely that you’ll have the “density” to have the saw depot any closer to my house than the Lowes, and I certainly wouldn’t make that trip for less than five bucks. And, for the record, Lowes actually DOES rent tools — with a daily rate between $25 and $65. I can’t see how adding a fleet of independent drivers is going to get that rate down under five bucks per rental.

    (And, of course, demand is not uniform. That saw will likely have 5x “surge pricing” on a nice Saturday morning, and the vast majority of saws will be stting idle at 10PM on a Tuesday.)

    (3) This future seems to be one in which there are a lot of cars flying around the roads doing very minor errands. This model has the exact same transaction costs as the model in which you jump into your car, drive to the hardware store to pick up a rental saw, use it, and then return it–except you’re paying those costs in cash instead of in your own time/effort/gas.

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