7 thoughts on “Reasons to be negative about the UK’s growth prospects”

  1. Posted 26/05/2010 at 10:33 | Permalink

    […] people are much more inclined to save during a recession even if they are not able to. Although most are being realistic/negative about where we are headed, some people are trying to remain upbeat. […]

  2. Posted 26/05/2010 at 12:08 | Permalink

    With high levels of debt the spending of both private and public sector will decline. This lost demand will hinder growth too. I cannot see real growth for a long time.

  3. Posted 26/05/2010 at 18:09 | Permalink

    There may be some counteracting factors to Tim’s predictions.

    The labour force may not shrink as fast as he expects, if people start retiring later.

    A switch from the public sector to the private sector may help increase the growth rate.

    Some of the higher tax rates can be reversed (for example, the 50 per cent rate of income tax), probably without a huge net loss of tax revenue.

    The last government’s ‘energy policy’ and climate change wastefulness could be reversed (though it may currrently seem unlikely).

    Although making such aggregate ‘predictions’ feels unsatisfactory, it’s not all bad news. I agree with Adam Smith: ‘There’s a deal of ruin in a nation.’

  4. Posted 27/05/2010 at 15:04 | Permalink

    ‘Firstly, labour force growth will slow from 2011′

    Make people work longer, especially in the Public sector. Require two C grades for university entrance. Sign off a five hundred thousand people. Reduce incapacity benefit. Deport illegals.

    ‘The fact remains that the boom in international financial services accounted for about a fifth of the UK’s GDP growth in the 1997 – 2008 period.’

    And just how close to financial meltdown were we in 2008? And how much have all the bail outs cost?

    Mrs Thatcher inherited a basically homogeneous society and also had the good fortune be elected just as the revenue from North Sea oil and gas started flowing into the Treasury.

    She had guts, unlike Dave.

  5. Posted 28/05/2010 at 01:24 | Permalink

    We need big ideas and big solutions to these problems, A labour force that is highly mobile and adaptable will be the one thing that works best for the UK. The more dirigiste mainland European states will find the going extremely tough. As long as our Labour laws are sensible and we make it so that it *pays* people to work rather than take from the State, we may be able to ride crisis this to a fairer outcome for everyone. The State has shown it can only be a part of the solution, but if left to interfere, most of the problem.

  6. Posted 10/06/2010 at 10:48 | Permalink

    Unemployment rose from about 5.25% in Jan/Mar 2008 to 8.0% in Jan/Mar 2010. Hence about 863 000 people who could rejoin the labour force. Again, 1 780 000 males in the 60-64 age bracket in 2008. Persuade a quarter to stay in work, adds about 445 000 over five years.

    How? Don’t pay unemployed not to work – cut benefits by 50%, 75% after 12 months, 100% after 18 months. No dole for school leavers, graduates, till 6 months full time, or 12 months part time work. Elderly – 10% flat rate of income tax, no deduction of pension if earning. No zero income tax rate – 10% minimum for everybody, then step up as now. Gets all in tax net. Large saving on dole, tax changes about balance.

  7. Posted 17/02/2011 at 11:28 | Permalink

    When the whole common market fails with the UK the people will realize how the governments are totally corrupt but it will be too late then!!!! Even if the people riot the clean up will be too late a joke really that man is destroying this planet only a nuclear war or some other massive disaster that would kill 5 billion people might save this planet…………..FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!!!!!!!!!

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