1 thought on “More macro-quackery”

  1. Posted 05/07/2013 at 18:17 | Permalink

    The latest estimates for HS2 have a few forecasting lessons for us. The ‘official estimates of the total cost of this vanity project went up from £33 billion to £43 billion — oh and another £7 billion for locomotives. But the revised total of £50 billion includes a contingency allowance of £14 billion and is still confidently expected to change again, probably upwards and probably by more tens of billions of pounds. Unless you are a government minister it is very difficult to take all this nonsense seriously. (By the way, the valuation’ of the benefits is also out by many billions of pounds.) We should always bear in mind Ralph Harris’s definition of a forecast: “A pretence of knowing what would have happened if what did happen hadn’t.”

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