UK-EU trade shows little new friction
6 November 2023
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Catherine McBride writes for The Daily Express
Trade economist Catherine McBride has written for The Daily Express, discussing the findings of her new paper, Has Brexit Really Harmed UK Trade? Countering the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims.
Catherine wrote:
“As Brexit could only possibly alter trade with the EU, which makes up just 42% of total UK trade, then for total UK trade to fall by 15% the OBR must still expect UK trade with the EU to fall by 36%. Of the 12 studies the OBR cites to back up the claim, analysing data from 2016 to 2019, none could have known the exact nature of the post-Brexit UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA).
“The TCA differs from typical EU trade agreements by offering immediate tariff-free and quota-free market access. Contrary to external studies’ assumptions, non-tariff trade friction hasn’t been evident in UK-EU trade data.”
Read the full piece here (print, pg. 5).
Catherine wrote:
“As Brexit could only possibly alter trade with the EU, which makes up just 42% of total UK trade, then for total UK trade to fall by 15% the OBR must still expect UK trade with the EU to fall by 36%. Of the 12 studies the OBR cites to back up the claim, analysing data from 2016 to 2019, none could have known the exact nature of the post-Brexit UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA).
“The TCA differs from typical EU trade agreements by offering immediate tariff-free and quota-free market access. Contrary to external studies’ assumptions, non-tariff trade friction hasn’t been evident in UK-EU trade data.”
Read the full piece here (print, pg. 5).
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