1 thought on “Why economic forecasts get the impact of Brexit wrong”

  1. Posted 06/04/2017 at 12:54 | Permalink

    I find this article the most balanced I have read in relation to our economic future post Brexit. Therefore I will try to make use of it whenever I need to challenge visceral opposition to Brexit.

    However, I do question the assumptions in the third and second paragraphs from the end. First, the EU has itself acknowledged that the single market in services is largely inoperative. Second, whilst it is always risky to generalize from a small particular example, may I offer my own experience of trying to sell services within the EU?

    For the ten years from 2006 to 2016, I was closely involved in a small, London based company that provided interim resources to facilities services companies. Our clients were mainly large, international corporates – many on the list of contractors that are strategically important to the UK government. In those ten years we grew from 6 to 250 people. I became operations director and then, for the last two years before I retired, I was the managing director.

    Whilst most of our work was in the UK, we placed interim personnel in various African and Middle-Eastern countries. We had many potential leads in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. We never succeeded in making a placement in an EU country. The restrictive labour laws in each of those countries always managed to undermine our efforts. In my view, there is no single market in services in the EU; just a lot of hot-air about it. So, as far as I am concerned, selling services to EU countries is difficult now, and that will not change after Brexit

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