“GDP already hit 2.1% – and it will only get worse”


Academic and Research Department

No-Deal Fear-Checker, No. 4


No-Deal Fear Checker, No. 6

No-Deal Fear Checker, No. 5
According to a report from investment bank UBS, the UK economy is already 2.1% smaller than it would have been without Brexit. And because the UK has not even left the EU yet, the damage will only increase.

The UBS report was only the latest of several papers using the same methodology, starting with an academic blog in November 2017. The clearest (and best) is a recent study by the Centre for Economic Reform (CER), published this June, which also put the hit to GDP at 2.1%. In short, these studies use a computer algorithm to select a weighted combination of countries whose growth best matched that of the UK economy before the EU referendum. This actual performance of the UK economy since the poll is then compared to this synthetic ‘doppelganger’, and the difference taken as a proxy for the impact of the Brexit vote.

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