Research

No-Deal Fear Checker, No 8

According to the latest Whitehall analysis, the UK economy could be between 6.3% and 10.7% smaller in a no-deal scenario, compared to remaining in the EU. These figures refer to the level of GDP around 15 years after the UK’s new relationship with the EU comes into effect. Another study by the Bank of England ... Continue reading

Trade sanctions rarely work & create substantial costs for the world economy, says new IEA report

Summary: During the twentieth century, economic sanctions became more prevalent. In the twenty-first century they have become a frequently used tool for governments seeking to change the behaviour of other countries.  An extensive research literature exists on the effectiveness of sanctions. Overall the research shows that sanctions very rarely achieve foreign policy goals. At the ... Continue reading
Research

Chaos at UK ports would wreck supply chains

It is often claimed that a no-deal Brexit would cause chaos at UK ports, with long delays at critical bottlenecks such as Dover, and motorways turned into vast lorry parks. This would be especially damaging for businesses that rely on complicated cross-border supply chains, notably in high-value manufacturing, or which are otherwise particularly time-sensitive, such ... Continue reading
Research

IEA's International Trade and Competition Unit releases briefing on the Backstop

Summary:  The provisions of the Protocol deliver what has become known as the ‘backstop’ for the Irish border. They come into effect if no other agreement that addresses the issues in connection with the Irish border has been reached by the end of the Transition Period on 31 December 2020, or any extension of that ... Continue reading
Research
Summary UK and EU officials have agreed the text of a draft Withdrawal Agreement and an outline of a ‘political declaration’ on the future UK-EU relationship. The transition period anticipated in the Withdrawal Agreement will effectively keep the UK in the Customs Union and the Single Market until the end of 2020, with all ‘four ... Continue reading
Research

UK must embrace innovation to make farming economically & environmentally viable, says new IEA report

Innovation in farming has led to higher crop yields which, in turn, have allowed more land to be spared from farming than would otherwise have been the case. Raising yields further to feed a growing global population will require new technologies to be embraced, including genetic modification, gene silencing and editing, as well as developments ... Continue reading

Brexit uncertainty means Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes Six / Three to Hold Bank Rate in November

At its meeting on 16th October 2018, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) elected, by a vote of six to three, to hold rates in November. The three favoured a 0.25% rise. All members had a bias to raise. Advocates of holding rates noted the uncertainty about the Brexit deal (if any) that the UK ... Continue reading
Research

Ahead of the 2018 Budget, Julian Jessop outlines his 'Wishlist' of policy announcements

An IEA briefing on the upcoming Budget calls for the Chancellor to resist the siren calls to ramp up public spending and recommit instead to reducing the burden of tax and regulation. Written by the IEA's Chief Economist Julian Jessop, the briefing includes his 'Wishlist' policy announcements for Monday. [tnc-pdf-viewer-iframe file="/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Budget-October-2018-final.pdf" width="800" height="715" download="true" print="true" fullscreen="true" ... Continue reading

Winning essay for the IEA Richard Koch Breakthrough Prize

Winner of the £50,000 prize: Ben Clements For more information about the IEA Breakthrough Prize please visit www.breakthroughprize.org.uk Summary:  Free market ideals should not be limited to esoteric debates about what could be achieved in theory. Indeed, competition, decentralisation, accountability and choice can solve the biggest challenges of our time. The cost and inaccessibility of housing ... Continue reading