SUGGESTED
Labour Market
30 October 2025
Media
6 November 2025
Society and Culture
The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC), ‘hybrid’ meeting at the Institute of Economic Affairs on 14 October 2025, voted by majority to hold the UK Base Rate at 4.0%. The committee also voted to maintain the current pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT) at £70bn per year. A majority expressed no bias toward further rate cuts, favouring a “wait and see” approach.
Voting Breakdown:
Hold Base Rate: Tim Congdon, Juan Castaneda, Patrick Minford, John Greenwood, Andrew Lilico, Peter Warburton, Kent Matthews
QT Position:
Forward Bias:
Economic Justifications:
Trevor Williams (50bps Cut)
Weak money supply growth and modest GDP expansion provide room for easing without jeopardising the downward inflation trend. QT should continue to anchor expectations.
Graeme Leach (25bps Cut)
Headline inflation remains elevated but slackening labour market and subdued M4X growth (3.4%) suggest inflation will ease. A moderate cut avoids unsettling markets.
Hold rates
Tim Congdon
Warned of fiscal dominance and rising debt interest. Cutting rates risks exacerbating public debt vulnerabilities.
Juan Castaneda
Stable M4X growth (~4.2%) aligns with achieving the 2% inflation target over 1–2 years. Advocated patience.
Patrick Minford
Emphasised Bank credibility. Persistent inflation above target demands caution. QT should continue.
John Greenwood
Past excess money growth still feeding inflation. QT is modest relative to the money stock and should be maintained.
Andrew Lilico
Monetary stability is welcome after years of volatility. Inflation is supply-driven and already easing—patience is warranted.
Peter Warburton
Fiscal tightening will induce recession, which will help tame inflation. No need for monetary adjustment now.
Kent Matthews
Persistent inflation effects and medium-term expectations are concerning. Pausing QT allows for observation
Next Meeting:
Scheduled for 13 January 2026.
For Further Information on the Content, Please Contact:
Trevor Williams + 44 (0) 7841 497791 trevor@trevorfwilliams.website
Andrew Lilico + 44 (0) 7886 711735 andrew.lilico@europe-economics.com
Julian Jessop + 44 (0) 7798 601692 julianhjessop@outlook.com
Voting Breakdown:
- Cut by 50bps: Trevor Williams
- Cut by 25bps: Graeme Leach
Hold Base Rate: Tim Congdon, Juan Castaneda, Patrick Minford, John Greenwood, Andrew Lilico, Peter Warburton, Kent Matthews
QT Position:
- Maintain QT: Majority
- Pause or Halt QT: Castaneda, Matthews, Leach
Forward Bias:
- No Bias: Majority
- Bias to Ease (Long Term): Patrick Minford
Economic Justifications:
Trevor Williams (50bps Cut)
Weak money supply growth and modest GDP expansion provide room for easing without jeopardising the downward inflation trend. QT should continue to anchor expectations.
Graeme Leach (25bps Cut)
Headline inflation remains elevated but slackening labour market and subdued M4X growth (3.4%) suggest inflation will ease. A moderate cut avoids unsettling markets.
Hold rates
Tim Congdon
Warned of fiscal dominance and rising debt interest. Cutting rates risks exacerbating public debt vulnerabilities.
Juan Castaneda
Stable M4X growth (~4.2%) aligns with achieving the 2% inflation target over 1–2 years. Advocated patience.
Patrick Minford
Emphasised Bank credibility. Persistent inflation above target demands caution. QT should continue.
John Greenwood
Past excess money growth still feeding inflation. QT is modest relative to the money stock and should be maintained.
Andrew Lilico
Monetary stability is welcome after years of volatility. Inflation is supply-driven and already easing—patience is warranted.
Peter Warburton
Fiscal tightening will induce recession, which will help tame inflation. No need for monetary adjustment now.
Kent Matthews
Persistent inflation effects and medium-term expectations are concerning. Pausing QT allows for observation
Read the full meeting minutes here.
Next Meeting:
Scheduled for 13 January 2026.
For Further Information on the Content, Please Contact:
Trevor Williams + 44 (0) 7841 497791 trevor@trevorfwilliams.website
Andrew Lilico + 44 (0) 7886 711735 andrew.lilico@europe-economics.com
Julian Jessop + 44 (0) 7798 601692 julianhjessop@outlook.com
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