2 thoughts on “Leaked Brexit analysis fails to break new ground”

  1. Posted 30/01/2018 at 21:14 | Permalink

    Julian, thanks for the summation. Have you had a chance to look into the Policy Exchange validation of the original gravity model extravaganza from the Treasury?

    https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/defying-gravity-a-critique-of-estimates-of-the-economic-impact-of-brexit/

    The report explains gravity model is used to conclude that approximately 50% of UK trade would disappear under the WTO option. *This turns out to be based on looking at the average impact of the single market for the whole EU.* The report then analyses the single market’s impact on Britain using the same model and finds that around 20% of current trade is due to the single market and that is before the impact of changes in the FX rate. (There is a high degree of uncertainty around that figure to be sure).

    Nevertheless, surely deliberately obfuscating this central assumption is deeply disingenuous? This is either a deliberate misuse of statistical analysis in which case it is not very different from lying or if the Treasury really thinks the UK is just like all the other EU nations economically this difference of opinion goes right to the heart of why brexiteers and remainers see the world differently.

  2. Posted 30/01/2018 at 22:15 | Permalink

    So should we just do what Michael Gove once said and ignore the experts ( I think that would include you with your first class Economics degree)? Is the only way to evaluate the best strategy to approach leaving the EU to ‘play it by ear’ (the current government line) who seem to dismiss impact assessments as rubbish and shed no light on what they are actually aiming for. Just because the number crunching yields a consistent result does hat invalidate it as it seems human nature is cravibg some new news and we are all getting a little tired of debating Brexit?

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