Is China Shock the Whole Story? On the Origins of the American Rust Belt

12:30pm-1pm: Sandwich Lunch

1pm-2pm: Presentation and Discussion

About the discussion

The focal point of American economic geography over the past two centuries was the rise and fall of its manufacturing core – the Manufacturing Belt. In 1870 it accounted for almost 84 percent of the entire American manufacturing employment. By 1997, even before China’s surge of imports into the U.S., it fell to barely 42 percent. Realizing that the Manufacturing Belt comprised only one sixth of the U.S. land area, and a little over half of country’s population in 1870, manufacturing sector exhibited enormous spatial concentration. What had happened? Why did once dominant region of American industrial production give way to what has been later coined as the ‘Rust Belt’? It surely wasn’t driven by the surge in China’s imports, as argued recently by David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson since this has unfolded after the year 2000. By that time, the heydays of the Manufacturing Belt were long gone, and the industrial heartland was three decades in decline. There isn’t lack of explanations why it happened: high labor costs, labor militance, international competition, structural change, or technological change. These, however, see the decline as a separate event, unrelated to the reasons why the Manufacturing Belt emerged in the first place. Therefore, while important, they also miss fundamental forces which led to its demise. The talk will argue that understanding decline into the Rust Belt is enriched by exploring the origins and success of the Manufacturing Belt in the previous 140 years or so and by following its story from the age of wagons, canals, through the railroad period to the trucking era.

About the speaker

Alexander Klein is a professor in economic history at the Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School. He graduated from CERGE-EI Prague, spent several years as a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Warwick and then over a decade at the University of Kent. Alexander Klein is a CEPR, and CAGE research fellow, and a research associate at CERGE-EI, Prague. His research is on economic history and economic geography of United States from early 19^th century to present, economic history of centrally planned economies, and early modern Bohemia. His research interest also involves reconstructing historical national account. He co-authored a research monograph British Economic Growth 1270-1870 with Steve Broadberry, Bruce Campbell, Mark Overton and Bas van Leeuwen, and reconstructed historical regional GDP of United States. His publications include research papers in The Econometric journal, Journal of Economic geography, Economic history review, Explorations in Economic History, European Review of Economic History, Cliometrica and more.

About the series

This will be the next instalment in our monthly Food for Thought series, hosted in partnership with the Vinson Centre at the University of Buckingham. The purpose of this series is to foster high-level academic discussion on themes within the classical liberal tradition, touching on economics, philosophy, history, law, and related disciplines. In turn, we hope to form a community of academics, policymakers, professionals, and students united by the exchange of ideas and life-long learning.

 

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