Research

Post-pandemic prospects for global trade

Summary The World Trade Organization has predicted that global trade in goods will drop by between 13 and 32 per cent in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. The last time trade volumes dropped substantially, during the financial crisis of 2008, they recovered – but not at pre-crisis rates of growth. Before the current ... Continue reading
Economic Affairs
Subscribe to Economic Affairs Contents: Introduction (page 129-130) Coronavirus Pandemics and the consequences of COVID-19 (pages 131-37) by Steve Davies The UK lockdown and the economic value of human life (pages 138-147) by Julian Jessop Italy and COVID-19: Winning the war, losing the peace? (pages 148-154) by Nicola Rossi, Alberto Mingardi Beyond COVID-19 lockdown: A ... Continue reading
Research
Summary The Covid-19 crisis has provided many grim examples of some familiar problems in health economics and cost-benefit analysis, and of the ‘tragic choices’ that sometimes need to be made. Policymakers frequently have to put a monetary value on a human life when deciding how to use limited resources in the fairest way. This value ... Continue reading
Research
Summary The policy reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic will increase budget deficits massively in all the world’s leading countries. The deficits will to a significant extent be monetised, with heavy state borrowing from both national central banks and commercial banks. The monetisation of budget deficits, combined with official support for emergency bank lending to cash-strained ... Continue reading
Research

How the UK economy can recover from coronavirus

Summary The uncertainty created by the Covid-19 crisis has reinvigorated many old debates about the role of the state. Some argue that it has demonstrated the need for a permanent increase in government intervention and public spending. The evidence does not support this view. This crisis has highlighted the flexibility of private businesses and civil ... Continue reading
Research

How economists can shape the post-lockdown world

Summary The seminal work on epidemiological models was carried out in the late 1920s and early 1930s. The models have developed substantially since then, but their key drivers are still essentially those discovered nearly a century ago. Epidemiological models do have real scientific value. But any forecast made with them must rely on assumptions about ... Continue reading
Research

Myths about public health spending

Summary The coronavirus outbreak in Britain has raised questions about the use of public health resources and about the costs and benefits of the ‘lockdown’. It has been argued that the government’s response to the epidemic was weakened by cuts to the public health budget. It is widely believed that spending on public health saves ... Continue reading
Research
Summary Laws passed in late March 2020 to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic are the greatest restrictions on liberty in modern British history. Any benefits that have emerged as a side effect of the restrictions have been far exceeded by the costs to the economy and to civil liberties. Civil society and the media should ... Continue reading