2 thoughts on “Brexit: Why time won’t tell”

  1. Posted 10/03/2017 at 22:51 | Permalink

    These are good predictions Dr Niemietz.
    There is an analogy to North East England where I live which is still an outlier when it comes to the rate of unemployment.
    Some people here still blame Thatcher and lack of investment from Westminster for this. Some people say the North East is struggling because it has rejected the free enterprise system, and has not campaigned for opt outs on National planning policy and National minimum wage rules for example.
    There will never be a consensus.

  2. Posted 15/11/2017 at 23:27 | Permalink

    A good thought experiment.

    I will draw attention to one factor that is not particularly debatable, UK demographics.

    The UK population pyramid is top heavy. There are a lot of 50ish people heading for retirement (is an older workforce less productive?). The under 20 cohort due to replace them is very much smaller. This has been discussed for years but is now biting. Unemployment is at record lows already despite the lower value of the pound causing reverse migration, at least in particular cases like booming Poland. Will the workforce shrink or will we rebuild it with immigrants? From where? We probably face further devaluations. Central Europeans may not oblige. Ukraine? Russia? India? Africa? What will be the political cost? So – economic decline (including per capita GDP or new sources of mass migration?

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